Business Wire

44,500 New Aircraft to Be Delivered Over the Next Two Decades, Worth US$2.9 Trillion

Share

The new Cirium Fleet Forecast reveals demand for approximately 44,500 new aircraft globally over the next two decades, worth US$2.9 trillion.

The forecast published by Ascend by Cirium, the consultancy arm of aviation analytics firm Cirium, is an independent outlook of the global passenger and freighter market for the next 20 years.

It reaffirms an encouraging long-term projection for the aviation industry and its recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, predicting that 20-year aircraft deliveries will be 1% lower globally than predicted a year ago.

This comes despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, travel restrictions in China, and rising energy costs all emerging as influential factors during 2022.

The aviation industry’s recovery from the Covid-19 crisis in early 2020, has progressed significantly if unevenly across regions. Global aviation activity is predicted to reach 2019 levels in October.

Rob Morris, Ascend by Cirium’s Global Head of Consultancy, said: “The new Cirium Fleet Forecast shows a positive long-term outlook for aviation. The industry is undergoing structural changes but remains on course to return to traditional growth paths by 2025.”

“The global passenger fleet will be required to increase by around 22,000 aircraft to service passenger traffic, which we predict to grow 3.6% annually to reach 47,700 aircraft by the end of 2041.

“These new aircraft will be required to meet demand for air travel, but also to replace less efficient, older-generation types.”

Asia will account for over 40% of new deliveries

Asia-Pacific remains the key growth region for new deliveries, driven by China. The country is forecast to have the highest annual passenger traffic growth rate at over 6% and account for 19% of deliveries in 2041, ahead of all other Asia-Pacific countries, with a combined share of 22%.

North American and European airlines are projected to account for 21% and 17% of deliveries respectively. Middle East airlines will take 7% of deliveries, accounting for 14% in value terms due to the rich mix of higher value twin-aisle deliveries.

In the forecast, Russian capacity and traffic are assumed to decline in the near term. Combined with the complete cessation of Ukrainian civil aviation activity, Russia/CIS traffic is then forecast to stabilize at 70% of 2019 levels in 2024.

Demand for single-aisles will drive fleet growth

At the end of November 2022, the single-aisle fleet was within 2% of 2019 levels, but twin-aisle aircraft numbers were still down by 20%. The single-aisle fleet will grow faster by 3.7% annually, against 3.2% for twin-aisles as the recovery of long-haul traffic continues to lag. The regional aircraft fleet will rise more modestly, by 1.1% a year, with the turboprop fleet set to grow at a faster rate within the regional sector.

Forecast traffic growth over the long term will require the global passenger fleet to increase by around 22,000 aircraft, which equates to a 3.1% annual growth rate, taking the inventory to some 47,700 aircraft at the end of 2041.

The in-service passenger fleet is not forecast to return to 2019 levels until mid-2023, thus effectively losing up to four years of ‘normal’ fleet growth.

Airbus and Boeing will remain the two largest commercial aircraft OEMs, delivering an estimated 80% of aircraft between them and 88% by value through 2041. However, there is US$360 billion of demand for other OEMs or new programs.

The pressures to replace older, less-efficient types will increase

Close to 88% of the current passenger fleet is forecast to be retired from passenger service during the next 20 years. Freighters have longer useful economic lives, so approximately 70% of the current fleet will be retired by 2041.

Overall, there will be some 19,000 retirements from the end-2021 passenger fleet, plus a further 2,500 aircraft that leave the passenger fleet via cargo conversion.

As pressure to switch to more environmentally friendly aircraft grows, replacing less efficient older-generation types will be an increasingly important element of fleet planning. The Covid-19 crisis has seen relatively young aircraft being phased out, while those of older vintages may remain in storage until eventual scrapping.

The freighter boom continues, but may not persist

Freight capacity (available tonne kilometres or ATKs) is forecast to grow annually at 3.0% and traffic (FTKs) at 3.7%, relative to 2019. The forecast predicts the supply of some 3,560 freighter aircraft over the next 20 years, including 1,060 new builds (30%) worth US$130 billion, and 2,480 conversions of passenger aircraft (70%).

This is a similar volume and profile to that predicted in the previous forecast, reflecting the continued near-term boom in conversions triggered by the air-cargo market dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic, including a short-term drop in passenger belly capacity, e-commerce growth and rising feedstock availability. Although the current conversion boom may not persist, it is enabling the replacement of older, less efficient aircraft.

To download an executive summary of the Cirium Fleet Forecast, [ click here ]

About Cirium

Cirium brings together powerful data and analytics to keep the world moving. Delivering insight, built from decades of experience in the sector, enabling travel companies, aircraft manufacturers, airports, airlines and financial institutions, among others, to make logical and informed decisions which shape the future of travel, growing revenues and enhancing customer experiences. Cirium is part of RELX, a global provider of information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.

For further information please follow Cirium updates on LinkedIn or Twitter or visit www.cirium.com.

To view this piece of content from cts.businesswire.com, please give your consent at the top of this page.

Contact information

For media enquiries please contact:
The Cirium media team at media@cirium.com
The PC Agency at cirium@pc.agency

About Business Wire

For more than 50 years, Business Wire has been the global leader in press release distribution and regulatory disclosure.

Subscribe to releases from Business Wire

Subscribe to all the latest releases from Business Wire by registering your e-mail address below. You can unsubscribe at any time.

Latest releases from Business Wire

Westfield Completes Acquisition of Lloyd’s of London Syndicate 12003.2.2023 00:18:00 EET | Press release

Westfield today announces the completion of its acquisition of Lloyd’s of London Syndicate 1200 from Argo Group International Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: ARGO). This strategic acquisition establishes Westfield as a global franchise, accelerates Westfield Specialty’sSM growth after a strong first 18 months in the U.S. market, and puts the overall Westfield Specialty portfolio in excess of $1 billion in premium. “This acquisition demonstrates Westfield’s commitment to the international specialty market,” says Westfield President, CEO and Board Chair Ed Largent. “The Lloyd’s of London market offers long-term growth opportunities and we’re excited to offer brokers, agents, and clients greater access to Westfield’s expertise and product offerings.” Westfield brings deep expertise and experience to the international specialty market. Westfield Specialty President Jack Kuhn has a wealth of experience leading global, multi-billion-dollar businesses. Together with Graham Evans, Westfield Specialty Exe

Mobile Commerce Platform Fintiv Partners with Geoswift to Enable Cross-border Digital Remittance in Asia2.2.2023 23:16:00 EET | Press release

Fintiv, a leading mobile commerce platform that brings together payments, loyalty programs, and mobile marketing in one place, has partnered with Geoswift, a payment technology company with significant expertise in Asian cross-border payments, to enable digital remittance payments into Asia through Fintiv’s versatile mobile wallets. The partnership will provide Fintiv’s customers the unique capability of making person-to-person or business-to-business payments into China, India, and many other Asian countries, directly from wallet accounts. With Geoswift’s superior geographical reach through its “GeoRemit” product line, Fintiv’s payment platform can now connect to an extensive number of domestic banks or mobile wallets in Asian countries and territories. For example, payments can be delivered instantly to either the UnionPay debit/credit cards or Alipay wallets of beneficiaries in China. “We are proud to announce a partnership with Geoswift as part of our global digital currency networ

SPIE Announces the Best Products in the Photonics Industry at its 15th Annual Prism Awards2.2.2023 21:22:00 EET | Press release

Yesterday, SPIE, the international society for optics and photonics, recognized the top-rated new optics and photonics products with the industry-focused Prism Awards. The gala evening, held during SPIE Photonics West, also marked the Prism Awards’ 15th anniversary with a champagne toast, a timeline gallery of past winners, and a video showcasing a decade and a half of Prism highlights. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230202005690/en/ The 2023 SPIE Prism Awards: The evening's winners and presenters celebrate their successes and 15 years of photonics innovations. (Photo: Business Wire) Each year, the SPIE Prism Awards reflect the rapidly growing trajectory, exciting latest developments, and rich technical innovations across photonics and photonics-enabled industries. This year, the annual ceremony honored a range of established and emerging companies applying innovative and creative solutions to critical proble

European Authorities Approve Lyophilized S/D Treated Plasma OctaplasLG® for Pre-Hospital Transfusion2.2.2023 18:28:00 EET | Press release

Octapharma AG today announced that European medical authorities have approved the lyophilised presentation of the well-established octaplasLG® - pharmaceutically-licensed S/D treated plasma for transfusion. The line extension, which will be marketed in Europe as a powder and solvent for solution for infusion, offers new and potentially life-saving treatment options in pre-hospital and emergency settings. “The European authorization of octaplasLG® powder continues Octapharma's ongoing commitment to help prevent uncontrolled haemorrhage associated with trauma, which accounts for 30%-50% of all deaths in the first 24 hours"1-5, says Dr. Oliver Hegener, Vice President IBU Critical Care. Trauma results in 4.4 million deaths worldwide annually6, with uncontrolled bleeding being the major cause of potentially preventable death. Trauma-induced coagulopathy (TIC) is an early abnormal response characterised by hypocoagulation, in addition to acute blood loss, shock, hypothermia and metabolic aci

LTIMindtree Partners with Criteo to Drive IT Operational Efficiency2.2.2023 17:00:00 EET | Press release

LTIMindtree, a global technology consulting and digital solutions company, today announced a multi-year engagement that enables Criteo, the commerce media company, to enhance its business agility, IT service quality, and scalability. As part of the engagement, LTIMindtree provides end-to-end IT services to support Criteo’s global operations across all functions. This includes supporting Criteo’s Microsoft Azure Cloud environment, developing a unified data platform, and providing end-user services for its service desk, field, device engineering and Enterprise Service Management. “Enabling Criteo with modern IT systems and capabilities remains a key priority in this fast-moving business environment,” said Beatrice Mabille, VP Internal IT, Criteo. “We look forward to our continued strategic partnership with LTIMindtree.” “We are excited to be a part of Criteo’s business journey as its first-ever strategic IT outsourcing partner,” said Sudhir Chaturvedi, President and Executive Board Membe

In our pressroom you can read all our latest releases, find our press contacts, images, documents and other relevant information about us.

Visit our pressroom