Future Health - A Global Initiative by Abu Dhabi: New Analysis Estimates Modifiable Health Risks Represent $16.4 Trillion Annual Global GDP Opportunity in 2050

Addressingbehavioural, metabolic and environmental health risks could generate an estimated $16.4 trillion in annual global GDP uplift in 2050. These findings are presented in The Future of Healthy Living: A $16.4 Trillion Opportunity, a new whitepaper co-authored by Future Health – A Global Initiative by Abu Dhabi, the McKinsey Health Institute (MHI) and Healthy Living at the Department of Health – Abu Dhabi, and released on the sidelines of the 81st Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA 81) in New York.

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The publication comes as governments look to translate the UN Political Declaration on Noncommunicable Diseases and Mental Health, adopted in December 2025, into national action. The whitepaper contributes to this wider global agenda by quantifying the health and economic opportunity of healthy living and providing governments with a practical framework for implementation.

H.E. Dr. Noura Khamis Al Ghaithi, Undersecretary of the Department of Health – Abu Dhabi, said: “As people live longer and the burden of non-communicable diseases continues to rise, the way we think about health must evolve. We need a system that can anticipate risk, intervene earlier and create the conditions for people to remain healthy throughout their lives.”

Under a modelled scenario where all modifiable health risks were eliminated, 1.5 billion disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) could be averted in 2050, equivalent to approximately 47 percent of projected global disease burden. A DALY represents one year of full health lost through illness, disability or premature death. Compared with the baseline forecast for 2050, eliminating risks included in the analysis could add 12 years to average global healthy life expectancy at birth.

The whitepaper presents new analysis from MHI, illustrating how improving population health can deliver benefits that extend beyond the individual, with the potential to strengthen economic participation and productivity at scale.

The analysis also finds substantial differences in the share of disease burden attributable to modifiable risk factors across countries, including for India (49%), the USA (45%), Germany (42%), Italy (40%), and Japan (35%), with potential GDP uplift varying depending on local conditions and progress already underway, among other factors. These findings reinforce the need for healthy living strategies tailored to local priorities.

Lars Hartenstein, Partner and Director of Healthy Longevity at McKinsey Health Institute, said:"The opportunity to improve health outcomes at scale has never been greater. Our analysis demonstrates that addressing modifiable risk factors could add years of healthy life while strengthening economic participation and productivity. Achieving that impact will require coordinated action across sectors to address the wider factors that influence health every day, from where people live and work to how they learn and connect."

The whitepaper argues that healthy living cannot be delivered by healthcare systems alone. Previous research from MHI shows that, of the 23 drivers identified as shaping health, 19 sit outside the formal healthcare system,¹ spanning areas such as education, transport, urban planning, food, technology, employment and community development.

The whitepaper makes the case for healthy living as a societal priority, requiring different sectors to work together to create environments that support healthier lives, and proposes a five-step framework for governments: set a clear ambition; identify the greatest health and economic opportunities; design a coordinated portfolio of measures; implement and scale effective measures; and use data and feedback to learn and adapt.

Examples in the whitepaper include Japan’s long-term Health Japan 21 initiative, Finland’s use of population data, Singapore’s technology-enabled national physical-activity programme, and Abu Dhabi’s Population Health Intelligence platform and cross-government Healthy Living Strategy.

Launched in November 2025, Abu Dhabi’s Healthy Living Strategy provides a government-wide framework for coordinated action across the emirate. Healthy Living at the Department of Health Abu Dhabi leads and orchestrates its implementation, working with government entities, businesses and communities across more than 28 initiatives spanning food environments, schools, workplaces, physical activity and preventive healthcare. Guided by data and behavioural science, this whole-of-society approach aims to reshape everyday environments so healthier choices are easier and more accessible, while preserving individual choice. The whitepaper presents Abu Dhabi’s experience as a practical example of how governments can translate healthy-living ambitions into coordinated delivery, offering lessons that can inform action in different national contexts.

H.E. Dr. Ahmed AlKhazraji, Executive Director of Healthy Living at the Department of Health – Abu Dhabi, said:“Our focus is on turning this shared ambition into practical changes that people can see and experience in their daily lives. Early progress includes new nutrition and physical-activity requirements in schools, healthier supermarket and restaurant environments, the introduction of the Nutri-Mark front-of-pack labelling system, responsible public food and beverage advertising. These are important milestones, but lasting impact will depend on shared accountability, using data and behavioural science to understand what works, and adapting as we learn. By sharing those lessons internationally, we hope to support wider action on NCD prevention and healthy living.”

The whitepaper also identifies five shifts that could help healthy living scale globally, spanning science, measurement, technology, economic incentives and social support. It argues that progress will also require stronger mechanisms for governments and businesses to learn from one another, compare evidence and develop shared approaches that can accelerate action across countries and sectors.

The whitepaper forms part of Future Health’s Abu Dhabi Blueprints series examining the future of health. Its themes will be explored through Future Health’s international programme and at the Abu Dhabi Future Health Summit, taking place from 20-22 October 2026.

The full whitepaper can be downloaded here: The Future of Healthy Living – A $16.4 trillion opportunity - Future Health.

About Future Health – A Global Initiative by Abu Dhabi

Future Health is a year-round platform for global collaboration and transformative health innovation, held under the patronage of His Highness Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council.

Bringing together health researchers, policymakers, business leaders, investors and entrepreneurs from across disciplines and geographies, Future Health drives collective action to strengthen health systems and unlock longer, healthier lives for all.

Through a year-round programme of research insights, publications, impact initiatives, Challenges, R&D funding, and cross-sector convenings, Future Health advances progress across four focus areas: longevity and precision medicine, health systems and sustainability, digital health and AI, and investment in life sciences.

Future Health is curated and convened by the Department of Health – Abu Dhabi and its Founding Partners: PureHealth, M42, Institute for Healthier Living Abu Dhabi, and Mubadala Bio. Mediclinic Middle East serves as Strategic Partner and Burjeel Holdings as Associate Partner.

For more information, visit www.futurehealthinitiative.ae⁠ and follow Future Health on: X, Instagram, LinkedIn and Facebook.

About McKinsey Health Institute

The McKinsey Health Institute (MHI) is an enduring, non-profit-generating institute within McKinsey & Company, founded on the conviction that, over the next decade, humanity could add as much as 45 billion extra years of higher-quality life. Its mission is to catalyze the actions and investment needed across continents, sectors, and communities to realize this possibility, working with a robust ecosystem of organizations to convene and activate leaders, advance research, create and promote data and tools, and stimulate investment and innovation across historically underinvested areas of health.

For more information, visit https://www.mckinsey.com/mhi/overview.

¹ McKinsey Health Institute. (2023). Table 1: The healthy 23 drivers. McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/mckinsey%20health%20institute/our%20insights/the%20secret%20to%20great%20health%20escaping%20the%20healthcare%20matrix/table-1-the-healthy-23-drivers-final.pdf

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