45,000 More-Fuel-Efficient Aircraft, Worth US$2.9 Trillion, Predicted to Be Delivered By 2040
16.12.2021 11:00:00 EET | Business Wire | Press release
The new 2021 Cirium Fleet Forecast reveals that US$2.9 trillion is expected to be spent on approximately 45,000 new and more-fuel-efficient aircraft over the next 20 years.
This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211215005489/en/
Published by Ascend by Cirium, the consultancy arm of aviation analytics firm Cirium , the Cirium Fleet Forecast predicts that 20-year aircraft deliveries globally by 2040 will be 4% higher than previously predicted a year ago.
This outlines a positive outlook for the aviation industry and its recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
COVID-19 significantly affected air travel and so aircraft deliveries, with a 43% reduction during 2020 — 600 fewer aircraft — before the recovery in 2021, albeit still 25% below the 2019 level.
As vaccination programs have been increasing globally, air travel is reopening resulting in 300 more aircraft deliveries in 2021 — despite the issues surrounding Boeing’s 787.
Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy at Ascend by Cirium said: “The 2021 Cirium Fleet Forecast provides an optimistic long-term forecast for aviation which sees the industry return — although structurally differently to before — to more traditional growth paths beyond 2024. Passenger traffic is predicted to grow annually at 3.7% and so the global passenger fleet will be required to increase by almost 22,000 aircraft.”
“If this forecast is realised that would take the global passenger fleet to some 47,200 aircraft by the end of 2040. The aircraft deliveries that are predicted will not only meet the rising traffic demands but will also replace older less-fuel-efficient aircraft.”
China will receive the most deliveries
The number of aircraft deliveries will vary from airline region to region, with Asian markets expected to be the engine for growth.
China is forecast to have the highest passenger traffic growth rate at over 6% — making it the country with the largest amount of deliveries achieving a 20% share.
This is significantly ahead of all other Asia-Pacific countries, which have a combined 22% share in total.
North American airlines are forecast to have 20% share and European carriers to have 17%.
The Middle East is estimated to take a 7% share, but in value terms it will be 11% by virtue of the high number of twin-aisle aircraft deliveries.
Latin America mirrors that of the Middle East with a 7% share, followed by Russia and CIS on 4% and Africa at 3%.
Majority of deliveries will be single-aisle jets
The Fleet Forecast reveals that single-aisle jets will account for 70% of total aircraft deliveries and 55% of delivery value in the next 20 years.
The core of this US$1.6 trillion market continues to be the 150-seat size aircraft, typified by the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 Max 8, which will make up 50% of deliveries.
Popular 180+ seater aircraft, including the A321 neo and B737 Max 10, will take an increasing annual share, with 40% of deliveries over the two decades.
New single-aisle aircraft programs from both Airbus and Boeing are forecast to be developed in the early to mid-2030s.
The US$1.1 trillion twin-aisle aircraft market will focus on B787s and A350s, with ‘mid-sized’ 250-300 seaters taking some 65% of delivery value. The highest capacity markets will be fought over by the A350-1000 and B777-9.
Deliveries in the regional markets are forecast to be worth US$150 billion. Around a third of this figure is for turboprops, led by the 70-seat sector aircraft, with a larger 90-seat size from the 2030s. Future programs include China’s MA700 and an expected new series from Embraer.
Older fleets will be replaced with new generation aircraft
About 80% of the current passenger fleet is forecast to be retired from passenger service between 2021 and 2040.
The replacement of these older aircraft — which have higher fuel burn — with new models, is becoming more important as the industry looks to drive reductions in carbon emissions and focus on sustainability.
Overall, there will be some 19,000 retirements from the end-2020 passenger fleet, in addition to the early phasing out of several relatively young aircraft.
Ascend by Cirium’s analysis forecasts an average economic life of 22 years for single-aisle aircraft and 20 years for twin-aisle aircraft.
Freighters: New builds and conversions are rising
As cargo remains strong, freighter capacity (based on available tonne kilometers) is forecast to grow at 3.3% compared to 2019 and the supply of freighter aircraft is predicted to be around 3,500 aircraft over the next 20 years.
Of this total, 30% are expected to be newbuild freighters and 70% are conversions from passenger to freighter aircraft. Around 1,050 new aircraft are forecast worth US$121 billion.
Passenger-to-freighter conversions are being driven by the growth of e-commerce, which has been boosted by more online shopping during lockdowns.
These conversion programs are focused on newer-generation aircraft types, such as the A321, B737-800, A330 and B777-300ER.
The Cirium Fleet Forecast is an independent outlook of the global commercial passenger and freighter aircraft market, based on the largest data portfolio in aviation and years of expertise.
To download an Executive Summary of the 2021 Cirium Fleet Forecast, click here.
Ends
About Cirium
Cirium brings together powerful data and analytics to keep the world moving. Delivering insight, built from decades of experience in the sector, enabling travel companies, aircraft manufacturers, airports, airlines and financial institutions, among others, to make logical and informed decisions which shape the future of travel, growing revenues and enhancing customer experiences. Cirium is part of RELX, a global provider of information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.
For further information please follow Cirium updates on LinkedIn or Twitter or visit www.cirium.com .
To view this piece of content from cts.businesswire.com, please give your consent at the top of this page.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211215005489/en/
Contact information
For media enquiries please contact:
The Cirium media team
Rachel Humphries/June Lee
media@cirium.com
The PC Agency
Paul Charles/Michael Johnson/Callum McGoldrick
cirium@pc.agency
About Business Wire
For more than 50 years, Business Wire has been the global leader in press release distribution and regulatory disclosure.
Subscribe to releases from Business Wire
Subscribe to all the latest releases from Business Wire by registering your e-mail address below. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Latest releases from Business Wire
Swedish Court Further Reschedules Delivery of Judgment in PriceRunner Vs Google Antitrust Case24.6.2026 21:55:00 EEST | Press release
Klarna Group plc (NYSE: KLAR) wishes to update investors that the Patent and Market Court in Stockholm, Sweden (Patent- och marknadsdomstolen) has again postponed publication of its judgment in the antitrust damages proceedings brought by PriceRunner, a Klarna subsidiary, against Google. The Court has rescheduled publication of its judgment from June 26, 2026 to July 1, 2026 at 13:00 CET. As with the Court's two previous notifications, the rescheduling is a procedural decision by the Court and relates solely to the timing of the judgment delivery. In its notification, the Court cited high workload as the reason for needing additional time to finalize the judgment. No inference about the outcome should be drawn from it. Important Notice The outcome of the proceedings is inherently uncertain. No assurance can be given that PriceRunner will succeed on liability or quantum. Any award would be subject to appeal by Google, to sharing arrangements with former PriceRunner shareholders and Klar
Vertex Energy Announces 6,000 bpd Group III Base Oil Expansion Project24.6.2026 17:00:00 EEST | Press release
Vertex Energy, Inc. (“Vertex” or the “Company”) today announced it is advancing a project at its Mobile, Alabama refinery to produce crude-derived conventional Group III base oils through the Company’s existing hydrocracker and related processing infrastructure, providing lubricant manufacturers and blenders with an additional domestic source of high-quality Group III supply. The project is designed to add an incremental 6,000 barrels per day of conventional Group III production capacity and support production of 4 cSt, 6 cSt, and 8 cSt Group III base oils using an existing crude-derived hydrocracked vacuum gas oil stream produced at the Company’s Mobile, Alabama refinery. Combined with the Company’s existing re-refined Group III base oil production, this additional capacity is expected to make Vertex the leading Group III producer in North America. Vertex has completed preliminary design work and has procured a high-pressure lubricants hydrotreating unit. The Company plans to start pr
Taktile Secures $110M in Goldman Sachs-led Series C to Power AI Transformation in Financial Institutions24.6.2026 16:30:00 EEST | Press release
Taktile, the leader in AI transformation for financial institutions, today announced its $110 million Series C fundraise. Growth Equity at Goldman Sachs Alternatives led the round, with participation from Balderton Capital, Index Ventures, Tiger Global, Y Combinator, and Dig Ventures. Taktile Fast Facts Taktile enables banks and insurers to transform into AI-native organizations that are increasingly powered by autonomous agents. Demand for Taktile accelerated in 2025, as AI models became capable of automating high-stakes decisions that previously required hours of manual work—from underwriting business loans and assessing claims to catching financial crime. Customers automate and optimize decisions with Taktile by combining its financial services expertise and product built for sector-specific AI use cases. One of the world’s largest insurers is running multiple use cases on Taktile, with projected cost efficiencies of over $90M in claims processing alone. Taktile’s team has a proven
New MetLife Study Reveals a 72% “Confidence Gap” in Ability to Recover from Life's Setbacks24.6.2026 16:25:00 EEST | Press release
A new multinational study from MetLife reveals a striking “confidence gap”: while most adults describe themselves as resilient, their confidence drops by 72% when faced with real-life setbacks. The Confident Pathways Report, conducted across the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, and Mexico, was designed to better understand how confidence is built and sustained throughout life. The findings underscore the role of opportunity, preparedness, and support in building confidence - factors that help people navigate uncertainty, recover from setbacks and pursue their goals. At a time when soccer is bringing people and communities together around the world, the findings also highlight how early childhood experiences such as sports, education, and mentorship can help foster resilience and gain confidence from a young age. Key findings across the four countries surveyed include: Confidence drops by 72% when adults consider their ability to recover from setbacks. Respondents were far more lik
StatLab Launches CytoPath Disc, Advancing Standardized Cell Block Preparation Worldwide24.6.2026 16:08:00 EEST | Press release
StatLab Medical Products, a leading global developer and manufacturer of pathology supplies and equipment, today announced the global launch of the CytoPath Disc, an innovative cell block preparation technology designed to standardize and simplify cell block preparation. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260624368623/en/ Developed as an alternative to traditional cell block methods, which convert concentrated cells suspended in fluid into a paraffin-embedded format for slide-based evaluation, the patent‑pending CytoPath Disc offers a more streamlined and efficient approach. The CytoPath Disc absorbs concentrated cells within a simple, sponge-like matrix, which is then processed, embedded, stained, and sectioned using standard histology workflows. Traditional cell block preparation methods often present challenges in achieving consistent results due to complex procedures, as well as the need for additional equipm
In our pressroom you can read all our latest releases, find our press contacts, images, documents and other relevant information about us.
Visit our pressroom