45,000 More-Fuel-Efficient Aircraft, Worth US$2.9 Trillion, Predicted to Be Delivered By 2040
The new 2021 Cirium Fleet Forecast reveals that US$2.9 trillion is expected to be spent on approximately 45,000 new and more-fuel-efficient aircraft over the next 20 years.
This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211215005489/en/
Published by Ascend by Cirium, the consultancy arm of aviation analytics firm Cirium , the Cirium Fleet Forecast predicts that 20-year aircraft deliveries globally by 2040 will be 4% higher than previously predicted a year ago.
This outlines a positive outlook for the aviation industry and its recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
COVID-19 significantly affected air travel and so aircraft deliveries, with a 43% reduction during 2020 — 600 fewer aircraft — before the recovery in 2021, albeit still 25% below the 2019 level.
As vaccination programs have been increasing globally, air travel is reopening resulting in 300 more aircraft deliveries in 2021 — despite the issues surrounding Boeing’s 787.
Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy at Ascend by Cirium said: “The 2021 Cirium Fleet Forecast provides an optimistic long-term forecast for aviation which sees the industry return — although structurally differently to before — to more traditional growth paths beyond 2024. Passenger traffic is predicted to grow annually at 3.7% and so the global passenger fleet will be required to increase by almost 22,000 aircraft.”
“If this forecast is realised that would take the global passenger fleet to some 47,200 aircraft by the end of 2040. The aircraft deliveries that are predicted will not only meet the rising traffic demands but will also replace older less-fuel-efficient aircraft.”
China will receive the most deliveries
The number of aircraft deliveries will vary from airline region to region, with Asian markets expected to be the engine for growth.
China is forecast to have the highest passenger traffic growth rate at over 6% — making it the country with the largest amount of deliveries achieving a 20% share.
This is significantly ahead of all other Asia-Pacific countries, which have a combined 22% share in total.
North American airlines are forecast to have 20% share and European carriers to have 17%.
The Middle East is estimated to take a 7% share, but in value terms it will be 11% by virtue of the high number of twin-aisle aircraft deliveries.
Latin America mirrors that of the Middle East with a 7% share, followed by Russia and CIS on 4% and Africa at 3%.
Majority of deliveries will be single-aisle jets
The Fleet Forecast reveals that single-aisle jets will account for 70% of total aircraft deliveries and 55% of delivery value in the next 20 years.
The core of this US$1.6 trillion market continues to be the 150-seat size aircraft, typified by the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 Max 8, which will make up 50% of deliveries.
Popular 180+ seater aircraft, including the A321 neo and B737 Max 10, will take an increasing annual share, with 40% of deliveries over the two decades.
New single-aisle aircraft programs from both Airbus and Boeing are forecast to be developed in the early to mid-2030s.
The US$1.1 trillion twin-aisle aircraft market will focus on B787s and A350s, with ‘mid-sized’ 250-300 seaters taking some 65% of delivery value. The highest capacity markets will be fought over by the A350-1000 and B777-9.
Deliveries in the regional markets are forecast to be worth US$150 billion. Around a third of this figure is for turboprops, led by the 70-seat sector aircraft, with a larger 90-seat size from the 2030s. Future programs include China’s MA700 and an expected new series from Embraer.
Older fleets will be replaced with new generation aircraft
About 80% of the current passenger fleet is forecast to be retired from passenger service between 2021 and 2040.
The replacement of these older aircraft — which have higher fuel burn — with new models, is becoming more important as the industry looks to drive reductions in carbon emissions and focus on sustainability.
Overall, there will be some 19,000 retirements from the end-2020 passenger fleet, in addition to the early phasing out of several relatively young aircraft.
Ascend by Cirium’s analysis forecasts an average economic life of 22 years for single-aisle aircraft and 20 years for twin-aisle aircraft.
Freighters: New builds and conversions are rising
As cargo remains strong, freighter capacity (based on available tonne kilometers) is forecast to grow at 3.3% compared to 2019 and the supply of freighter aircraft is predicted to be around 3,500 aircraft over the next 20 years.
Of this total, 30% are expected to be newbuild freighters and 70% are conversions from passenger to freighter aircraft. Around 1,050 new aircraft are forecast worth US$121 billion.
Passenger-to-freighter conversions are being driven by the growth of e-commerce, which has been boosted by more online shopping during lockdowns.
These conversion programs are focused on newer-generation aircraft types, such as the A321, B737-800, A330 and B777-300ER.
The Cirium Fleet Forecast is an independent outlook of the global commercial passenger and freighter aircraft market, based on the largest data portfolio in aviation and years of expertise.
To download an Executive Summary of the 2021 Cirium Fleet Forecast, click here.
Ends
About Cirium
Cirium brings together powerful data and analytics to keep the world moving. Delivering insight, built from decades of experience in the sector, enabling travel companies, aircraft manufacturers, airports, airlines and financial institutions, among others, to make logical and informed decisions which shape the future of travel, growing revenues and enhancing customer experiences. Cirium is part of RELX, a global provider of information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.
For further information please follow Cirium updates on LinkedIn or Twitter or visit www.cirium.com .
To view this piece of content from cts.businesswire.com, please give your consent at the top of this page.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211215005489/en/
Contact information
For media enquiries please contact:
The Cirium media team
Rachel Humphries/June Lee
media@cirium.com
The PC Agency
Paul Charles/Michael Johnson/Callum McGoldrick
cirium@pc.agency
About Business Wire
For more than 50 years, Business Wire has been the global leader in press release distribution and regulatory disclosure.
Subscribe to releases from Business Wire
Subscribe to all the latest releases from Business Wire by registering your e-mail address below. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Latest releases from Business Wire
Axelspace: Notice of Signing a Service contract for In-Orbit Demonstration with Pale Blue, Inc.22.12.2025 11:00:00 EET | Press release
Axelspace Corporation (“Axelspace”), a leading microsatellite company committed to making “Space within Your Reach,” has entered into a service agreement with Pale Blue Inc. (“Pale Blue”), a company that develops, manufactures, and sells thrusters (engines) for small satellites, for an in-orbit demonstration, as detailed below. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251219321165/en/ Jun Asakawa, Co-founder & CEO of Pale Blue (left in photo) and Yuya Nakamura, President and CEO of Axelspace Axelspace provides AxelLiner Laboratory (AL Lab), a new service originating from the AxelLiner business that is specialized in in-orbit demonstration of space components. Under this contract, an in-orbit demonstration of a fast-start Hall thruster developed by Pale Blue is scheduled to be conducted in 2027. Nonetheless, conducting in-orbit demonstrations in a short period of time is known to be a significant challenge due to the in
Axelspace Signing Agreement on a Multi-Launch Arrangement and the Launch of New Satellites with Exolaunch22.12.2025 11:00:00 EET | Press release
Axelspace Corporation (“Axelspace”), a leading microsatellite company committed to making “Space within Your Reach,” is pleased to announce a multi-launch agreement (MLA) with Exolaunch, a global launch integrator and leader in launch mission management, satellite integration and satellite deployment technologies. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251219038364/en/ The Multi-Launch Agreement will accelerate the growth of Axelspace. In particular, one satellite scheduled for launch under the new Agreement will be used in the AxelLiner business’s in-orbit demonstration service, “AxelLiner Laboratory”. Exolaunch has already secured launches for eight (8) Axelspace’s satellites on the upcoming missions. Axelspace provides AxelLiner Laboratory (AL Lab), a new service originating from the AxelLiner business that is specialized in in-orbit demonstration of space components. Nonetheless, conducting in-orbit demonstration
Zambon Biotech Announces First Patient Dosed in Phase 3b ADIP Clinical Study of IPX203 in Parkinson’s Disease22.12.2025 11:00:00 EET | Press release
Zambon Biotech, a specialized biotech company part of the Zambon group that aims to build a scientifically robust and commercially viable portfolio of innovative patient-oriented drugs through the scouting, acquisition, licensing and development of new molecules, today announced that the first participant with advanced Parkinson’s disease has been enrolled in the European Phase 3b ADIP (IPX203 in Advanced Parkinson’s disease) study, which is planned to evaluate the efficacy and safety of IPX203 versus immediate-release (IR) levodopa/carbidopa (LD/CD) in a regimen which has not yet been the focus of a Phase 3 trial. IPX203 is a novel, oral modified-release formulation of LD/CD designed for the treatment of Parkinson’s disease, the fastest growing neurological condition in the world according to the World Health Organization1. IPX203 contains immediate-release granules and extended-release beads, providing both a rapid onset of action and a longer duration of benefit, sustaining the levo
Pimicotinib Approved as Systemic Treatment in China for Tenosynovial Giant Cell Tumor22.12.2025 10:00:00 EET | Press release
Merck, a leading science and technology company, announced today that following Priority Review, the China National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) has approved pimicotinib for the treatment of adult patients with symptomatic tenosynovial giant cell tumor (TGCT) for which surgical resection will potentially cause functional limitation or relatively severe morbidity. Pimicotinib, a colony stimulating factor-1 receptor (CSF-1R) inhibitor developed by Abbisko Therapeutics Co., Ltd., Shanghai, China, is the first Chemical Drug Class 1 approved in China for the treatment of TGCT. “We are continuing to deliver on our commitment to improving the lives of patients with rare tumors with this first-in-the-world regulatory approval of pimicotinib,” said Danny Bar-Zohar, CEO Healthcare and Member of the Executive Board of Merck. “This approval is a significant step forward in further strengthening our leadership in rare tumors, while offering patients the opportunity to change the course of
Incyte Japan Announces Approval of Minjuvi ® (tafasitamab) in Combination with Rituximab and Lenalidomide for the Treatment of Relapsed or Refractory Follicular Lymphoma22.12.2025 09:44:00 EET | Press release
Incyte Biosciences Japan G.K. today announced approval from Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) for Minjuvi® (tafasitamab) in combination with rituximab and lenalidomide for adult patients with relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma (2L+ FL). “Today's approval of Minjuvi in combination with rituximab and lenalidomide marks a significant milestone as the first dual-targeted CD19 and CD20 immunotherapy combination for relapsed or refractory FL in Japan,” said Yasuyuki Ishida, General Manager, Incyte Biosciences Japan. “By improving progression-free survival, Minjuvi offers a chemotherapy-free option for eligible patients with relapsed or refractory disease. This approval underscores our commitment to bridging critical treatment gaps to patients and families affected by this challenging disease in Japan.” The approval is based on the pivotal Phase 3 inMIND trial, which enrolled 654 adult patients, including patients based in Japan. The study demonstrated that Minjuvi
In our pressroom you can read all our latest releases, find our press contacts, images, documents and other relevant information about us.
Visit our pressroom