Solar and wind power production forecasts show how much electricity the sun and wind will produce over the following few days

The new service is a helpful tool for households and communities that use solar and wind power.

“For example, the information enables them to anticipate when plenty of solar power will be available so that they can time their consumption accordingly. On the other hand, consumption can be reduced if cloudy and windless weather has been forecast because it means that wind power will be scarce,” explains Anders Lindfors, Research Professor at the FMI.

The service is freely available on the FMI website at https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/solar-and-wind-power-forecast.

Solar power production forecast is available for different locations

The solar power production forecast shows sunshine as the power produced by a solar power plant at different locations over the following few days.

“Based on the information in the weather forecast model, it is first estimated how much solar radiation will fall on the inclined surface of the solar panel. Because the efficiency of solar panels does not depend only on the radiation conditions, but also on the temperature of the panels, the efficiency corresponding to the weather conditions at a given time is then calculated from the radiation, temperature and wind data. The forecast solar energy production is obtained by combining all this information,” says Anders Lindfors.

The solar power plant used in the forecast is assumed to be a power plant with a nominal power of 1 kWp (kilowatt-peak), facing south and installed at an angle of 30 degrees from the horizontal level. The nominal power has been selected to make the forecast easy to convert: the power produced by a solar power plant with a peak power of 5 kWp and the same orientation will be five times the forecast power.

Wind power production forecast covers all of Finland

The wind power production forecast shows the total power production of wind turbines in Finland over the following few days.

“The forecast is obtained by combining the forecast wind data with the location data of Finland's wind turbines. In addition, the data on the hub height and the power curve of each known wind turbine in Finland are used in the calculation,” Anders Lindfors explains.

The solar and wind power production forecasts are based on the weather data produced by the joint Nordic MetCoOp weather forecasting system.

The methods used in the forecasts have been developed in projects funded by the Strategic Research Council, the Academy of Finland, the Nessling Foundation and Business Finland.

Further information:

Anders Lindfors, Research Professor, Finnish Meteorological Institute, tel. +358 50 433 1055, anders.lindfors@fmi.fi