Majority of Finns believe it is essential that Ukraine wins the war

Key findings

• A majority (57%) of Finns consider a Russian defeat and withdrawal from Ukraine to be essential for achieving a lasting ceasefire or peace, while 26 per cent consider this to be necessary.
• Half (51%) of Finns believe that a change of regime in Russia is necessary once a permanent ceasefire or peace agreement is reached.
• Almost all Finns consider Russia to be unstable and unpredictable (93%), an expansionist superpower (89%) and a significant military threat (85%).
• A majority (62%) of Finns said they also see ordinary Russians as partly to blame for the war of aggression in Ukraine, because they have not been standing up in opposition to it.
• A majority of Finns said they would welcome Ukraine as a member of the European Union (56%) and NATO (55%). Three quarters (75%) said they are satisfied with the way state leadership has handled issues related to the war in Ukraine.

EVA’s Values and Attitudes Survey that was conducted in autumn 2023 studied Finns’ opinions on what kind of matters and conditions should exist once a permanent ceasefire or peace agreement is eventually reached in Ukraine. In addition to Russia’s defeat, the majority of Finns consider the following to be essential: nuclear weapons will not be used (84%), the threat of war spreading to other countries will subside (63%), perpetrators of war crimes will be brought to justice (63%), Ukraine will regain the territories that Russia occupied after the invasion in spring 2022 (56%), Ukraine will tackle the rampant corruption in the country (51%), Russia will pay reparations for the reconstruction of Ukraine (51%) and a change of regime will take place in Russia (51%).

A majority considers it at least necessary (38% essential and 42% necessary) for Ukraine to regain all the territories that Russia has occupied, including the Crimean Peninsula.

“The Finns are very united in their support for Ukraine in the war against Russia. In addition to the outcome of the war, it seems that the Finns are more concerned with bringing war criminals to justice than the stability of Russia. It does look like Finns have lost hope in the Russia of today. Finns also believe that ordinary Russians bear at least some kind of collective responsibility for their country’s war of aggression and its continuation in Ukraine,” says Ilkka Haavisto, EVA’s Research Manager, who wrote the analysis of results.

The majority also consider ordinary Russians collectively responsible for the war

A clear majority (62%) of Finns believe that ordinary Russians are partly responsible for the war of aggression in Ukraine, because they have not been standing up in opposition to the war. A fifth (22%) believe that ordinary Russians cannot be expected to stand up in opposition to the war.

Finns’ perceptions of Russia have become increasingly bleak as the war has progressed. Almost all Finns consider Russia to be unstable and unpredictable (93%), a centralised dictatorship (92%), an expansionist superpower (89%) and a significant military threat (85%).

How the survey was conducted

The results are based on the responses of 2,045 people. The error margin of the results is 2–3 percentage points in each direction on the level of the entire population. The data were collected from 15 to 27 September 2023. The respondents represent the population aged 18–79 across all of Finland (excl. Åland). The material was collected in a Taloustutkimus Oy internet panel, from which the survey sample was formed through random sampling. The material has been weighted so as to represent the population according to age, gender, place of residence, education, profession or position, sector and party affiliation. The statistical further analysis of the material was conducted by Pentti Kiljunen at Yhdyskuntatutkimus Oy. The results and their more detailed itemisations by population group are available on EVA’s website. EVA has conducted the Survey on Values and Attitudes since 1984.

Further information:

Ilkka Haavisto: Ukraine’s cause is ours – EVA Analysis (file attached)

Further information: Ilkka Haavisto, Research Manager, ilkka.haavisto@eva.fi or +358 50 331 3823 Advance requests for publication: Mikko Laakso, Head of Communications, mikko.laakso@eva.fi or +358 50 383 9432