Forrester: Global Online Retail Sales To Grow 8.9% Annually, Reaching $6.8 Trillion In 2028
30.5.2024 11:30:00 EEST | Business Wire | Press release
Forrester (Nasdaq: FORR) forecasts that total global online retail sales will grow from $4.4 trillion in 2023 to $6.8 trillion by 2028 at an 8.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). According to the report Global Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2024 To 2028, which provides a five-year forecast for total, online, and offline retail sales for 40 countries globally, despite the growth in e-commerce, 76% (or $21.9 trillion) of global retail sales will still occur offline in 2028. As a result, retailers must continue to invest in omnichannel strategies that provide a seamless shopping experience, both online and offline.
The report further states that retail e-commerce maturity varies globally. Advanced economies including the US, the UK, and South Korea are more mature due to higher internet penetration and digital literacy. As smartphone adoption and mobile commerce become more widespread, however, emerging markets in Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, and Latin America are catching up. This rapid adaptation is transforming the global e-commerce landscape, presenting new opportunities for businesses and consumers alike.
Looking ahead at 2024 and beyond, Forrester expects continued growth momentum for online retail sales globally. Following are some noteworthy highlights from the report, broken down by global region.
The Americas:
- In the US, online retail sales are expected to reach $1.6 trillion by 2028, accounting for 28% of total US retail sales.
- E-commerce is more mature in the US compared to Canada, with Canadian online retail sales expected to reach $83 billion by 2028. Canada lags the US in e-commerce penetration due to lower population density, a smaller market size, and slower consumer adoption.
- In Latin America, online retail sales in the top six countries — Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, and Chile — will grow from $109 billion in 2023 to $192 billion by 2028.
Europe:
- In Western European countries — including Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK — online retail sales are expected to grow from $508 billion in 2023 to $773 billion in 2028, with online retail penetration increasing from 15% to 20%. The UK will continue to be the biggest market for retail e-commerce, followed by Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.
- In Eastern Europe, online retail penetration is half that of Western Europe. Forrester forecasts that online retail sales for the top five Eastern European countries — Russia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Hungary — will increase from $72 billion in 2023 to $126 billion in 2028, with Russia and Poland leading the region.
Asia-Pacific:
- In Asia-Pacific, online retail sales for the top five countries — China, South Korea, Japan, India, and Australia — are expected to increase from $2.2 trillion in 2023 to $3.2 trillion in 2028, with China leading the region. China and South Korea are the top two countries globally in terms of e-commerce penetration and will each have online retail penetration of more than 40% by 2028.
- In Southeast Asia’s top six countries — Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore — retail e-commerce sales reached $93 billion in 2023 and will rise to $193 billion by 2028 to capture 17.4% of total retail sales. Indonesia leads the region in online retail penetration, followed by Malaysia and Singapore. The Philippines and Vietnam will see a CAGR of more than 20% over the next five years, outpacing other countries in the region.
“The growth of online marketplaces, social commerce, livestream selling, and direct-to-consumer commerce will accelerate global online retail sales growth over the next five years,” said Jitender Miglani, principal forecast analyst at Forrester. “However, e-commerce maturity and growth opportunities vary vastly by region. Retailers and brands must therefore have a thorough understanding of the key drivers of retail and e-commerce growth in their priority markets and tailor their strategies appropriately, to succeed.”
Resources:
- Read Forrester’s report, Global Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2024 To 2028 (client access required).
- Learn more about Forrester’s Global Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2024 To 2028, in this blog.
About Forrester
Forrester (Nasdaq: FORR) is one of the most influential research and advisory firms in the world. We help leaders across technology, customer experience, digital, marketing, sales, and product functions use customer obsession to accelerate growth. Through Forrester’s proprietary research, consulting, and events, leaders from around the globe are empowered to be bold at work — to navigate change and put their customers at the center of their leadership, strategy, and operations. Our unique insights are grounded in annual surveys of more than 700,000 consumers, business leaders, and technology leaders worldwide; rigorous and objective research methodologies, including Forrester Wave™ evaluations; more than 100 million real-time feedback votes; and the shared wisdom of our clients. To learn more, visit Forrester.com.
To view this piece of content from cts.businesswire.com, please give your consent at the top of this page.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240530846364/en/
Contact information
Press
Hannah Segvich
hsegvich@forrester.com
About Business Wire
For more than 50 years, Business Wire has been the global leader in press release distribution and regulatory disclosure.
Subscribe to releases from Business Wire
Subscribe to all the latest releases from Business Wire by registering your e-mail address below. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Latest releases from Business Wire
IQM Announces Novel Quantum Error Correction Approach Toward Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computing9.6.2026 10:00:00 EEST | Press release
IQM Quantum Computers, the global leader in superconducting quantum computers, has developed a novel quantum error-correcting code that achieves up to three orders of magnitude lower logical error rates than the surface code, also requiring up to eight times fewer physical qubits. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260609533201/en/ IQM´s breakthrough technology, called barbell codes. Unlike many alternative high-performance quantum error-correction approaches, the new code also maintains a comparatively low hardware complexity, marking a significant advancement toward scalable fault-tolerant quantum computing. Quantum error correction remains one of the defining challenges in the race toward practical quantum computing. Errors introduced by noise must be corrected faster than they accumulate, a requirement that previous approaches demanded either complex hardware or significant performance trade-offs, which IQM's
Longpoint Expands into Germany and the Netherlands, Targeting €400 Million of Infill Logistics Investment9.6.2026 10:00:00 EEST | Press release
Longpoint Partners today announced its expansion into Germany and the Netherlands, extending its infill industrial strategy into two of Europe’s most supply-constrained logistics markets. The firm is establishing a presence in high-demand locations, including Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, and the Randstad, and plans to deploy approximately €400 million into logistics assets near major population centers and transportation corridors. “We are excited to expand Longpoint’s infill industrial strategy into Germany and the Netherlands,” said Dwight Angelini, Founding and Managing Partner of Longpoint Partners. “These are highly attractive logistics markets with strong fundamentals, limited supply, and a clear need for high-quality light industrial and logistics space. With Gijs and Benedict leading our local efforts, we have the market knowledge, relationships, and discipline to identify attractive opportunities and execute with conviction.” The expansion extends Longpoint’s focus on infill logisti
ISO/TC 251 Recognizes Ampowr as the Only BESS Operator With a Fully Integrated ISO Stack9.6.2026 10:00:00 EEST | Press release
ISO/TC 251, the international technical committee that authors the ISO 55000 family of asset management standards, has published a case study profiling Ampowr's integrated certification methodology. Authored by NEN, the Dutch national standards body, the study is now publicly available in the ISO/TC 251 case studies library alongside profiles of Rijkswaterstaat, the US Army Corps of Engineers, Novo Nordisk, and Veolia. ISO/TC 251 approached Ampowr directly. NEN subsequently conducted an in-depth interview with Executive Director Andrew Elwell, examining how Ampowr operates its five certifications (ISO 9001, ISO 14001, ISO 45001, ISO 27001 and ISO 55001), as a single integrated system rather than separate compliance silos. "To our knowledge we are the only provider globally with this complete value stack visible in the market," said Andrew Elwell, Executive Director of Ampowr. "We have actively sought a peer that holds BESS hardware, energy management software, energy trading and asset
Estonia Raises the Bar for Secure Digital Identity in Europe With New eID Cards Developed With Thales9.6.2026 10:00:00 EEST | Press release
With increasing cyber risks and the rapid evolution of digital public services, Estonia is reinforcing the security, durability and adaptability of the documents that underpin its digital society: identity cards, residence permit cards, e-resident digital identity cards, diplomatic identity cards, certificates of AIP (Applicant for International Protection). Backed by Thales’ decades of expertise in secure identity technologies, the new programme introduces stronger protection against fraud, upgraded electronic features and the ability to respond quickly to emerging cybersecurity threats. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260608624209/en/ © Reelika Riimand - Estonian Police and Border Guard Board At the heart of the programme is Estonia’s new national eID card, designed by Thales to blend strong physical protectionwith robust digital security. Its materials, visual features and advanced security techniques make
Bial Reports Topline Results From ACTIVATE Phase 2b Study in GBA‑Associated Parkinson’s9.6.2026 09:00:00 EEST | Press release
Bial, an innovation-driven biopharmaceutical company focused on neurosciences and rare diseases, announced today that the Phase 2b ACTIVATE study of BIA 28-6156 (pariceract) in patients with Parkinson’s who have a pathogenic variant in the GBA1 gene (GBA-PD) did not meet its primary, nor the key secondary efficacy endpoints, meaning that BIA 28-6156 failed to slow the progression of GBA-PD versus placebo. BIA 28-6156 proved to be generally well tolerated in the study, with no unexpected safety concerns arising. While the study data provide valuable scientific information and contribute to a broader understanding of Parkinson’s biology, BIA 28-6156 did not demonstrate significant differentiation from placebo on the primary or key secondary endpoints measured. Based on the lack of demonstrated efficacy in this study, Bial has made the decision to discontinue further development of BIA 28-6156 for this indication. “We are disappointed with the outcome of the Phase 2b ACTIVATE study, as th
In our pressroom you can read all our latest releases, find our press contacts, images, documents and other relevant information about us.
Visit our pressroom