FIIA and Sitra: What kind of EU do we want in Finland? – five significant questions

As we know, the European Union has power over what kinds of laws are enacted in Finland, how nature is restored, or under what conditions we engage in foreign trade. Finland’s economic success, security and international influence are therefore closely linked to European decisions.

“In view of this, there is surprisingly little debate in Finland about what kinds of goals we want the EU to promote, and what kind of future its decisions will build over a time span of 10 to 15 years. Such discussions would be really valuable in terms of both Finnish EU policy and efforts to exert advance influence,” says Tuomas Iso-Markku, Senior Research Fellow at FIIA.

Iso-Markku authored Sitra’s memorandum Millaisen EU:n haluamme?  (What kind of EU do we want?) published today.

Due to the recent European parliamentary elections, this is a good juncture to reflect on EU’s future. The future EU commission will be inface of major decisions which will determine EU’s future developments for years, and even decades to come.

The war in Ukraine and its possible outcome, which the EU can influence through its own actions, will shape the European security and operating environment in the long term. The basic pillars of democracy are shaking in some EU Member States. In terms of technological development, Europe is lagging its competitors, the United States and China. Efforts to stop the ecological crisis is an urgent matter not only for Europe but also for the entire planet, and it requires faster and more determined action than what we are doing at present. 

“In the midst of the challenges, it is good to remember that in the many crises of the 21st century, the EU has shown resilience and been able to provide quick solutions. There will undoubtedly be surprises and challenges in the future as well. But instead of drifting from one crisis to another, we should consider how we can be better prepared and, above all, influence the future,” says Sitra’s Senior Lead Vesa-Matti Lahti.

The memorandum focuses on five key choices and related scenarios for EU

Sitra and FIIA’s memorandum examines the change and future of Finland and the world from a shared European perspective, encouraging governments, political parties, civil society and companies to take a more far-reaching approach to EU policy.

The paper looks at five important developments for the future of the EU, which emerged from the foresight workshops organised by Sitra and FIIA in the spring. They were attended by experts working on EU topics. The aim of the workshops was to identify the most important issues and the most critical uncertainties, as well as the alternative futures that might emerge from them.

The five topics selected are related to the EU’s climate objectives, values, enlargement, the impacts of extreme weather events and partnerships with developing countries. The scenarios for 2035 illustrate how different policy choices on these issues would take the EU in completely different directions.

The memorandum also lists other recent foresight reports that provide input to the debate on the future of the EU. Futures thinking helps to look at the current situation in a new light and choose actions that accelerate desired developments or reduce potential risks. 

“If we understand what determines the future of the European Union, and what we want for the future, we will be able to develop and offer solutions to the challenges facing the EU,” FIIA’s Tuomas Iso-Markku emphasises.

Additional information:

Tuomas Iso-Markku, Senior Research Fellow, Finnish Institute of International Affairs, tel.+358 9 432 7737, tuomas.iso-markku@fiia.fi

Vesa-Matti Lahti, Senior Lead, Foresight, Sitra, tel. +358 294 618 446, vesa-matti.lahti@sitra.fi