Futures Barometer 2025: Finns’ confidence in future plummets – trust in local and regional democracy on shaky ground

Despite the turbulent global situation and general uncertainty, only 14 per cent of Finns consider their personal future to be worse or significantly worse than the present. In addition, more than half of Finns feel that they can influence their own future.

According to the Futures Barometer, which was carried out for the fourth time, Finns’ interest in the future has remained high, as almost everyone (85%) is interested in the future. In addition, the majority (75%) believe that we can influence the future. Among different age groups, confidence in the future has remained strongest among young people (15–24 years old). For them, the future looks better than for older age groups, and they also believe they can influence the future.

In contrast, confidence in a better future for Finland has plummeted. Only 18 per cent see Finland’s future as better than the present (11 percentage points down from the previous 2023 Futures Barometer). The Finnish view of the future of humanity is even gloomier. Only 11 per cent of Finns see it as better than the present.

‘The crises of recent years have understandably tested confidence in the future for both citizens and entire nations. Although Finns’ confidence in the future has weakened, it still remains high. In addition, we firmly believe that we can influence the future. This is a resource for us that should be better utilised in preparing for renewing society and different futures,’ says Veera Heinonen, Director of Sitra’s foresight function.

Bleakest outlook in South Savo, most positive in Pirkanmaa

Regionally, there are no major differences in Finnish attitudes towards the future. In contrast, people’s opinions about the future of their own municipality vary. Among all the Finnish regions, the outlook for the future is considered the bleakest in South Savo, where up to half of the respondents see the future of their municipality as worse than it is at present. The most positive views are found in Pirkanmaa, where 37 per cent of citizens see the future of their municipality as better and only a quarter as worse.

People living in rural municipalities more often see the future of their municipality of residence as worse than people living in urban municipalities. A quarter of those living in cities see a better future, compared to only 18 per cent of those living in rural areas.

Compared to the previous 2021 Futures Barometer carried out before the municipal elections, people’s views on the future of their own municipality of residence are now more pessimistic in almost all regions.

Inspiring visions and perseverance are missing from decision-making
This time, the Futures Barometer asked for perspectives on the future not only from citizens but also from regional and municipal decision-makers. Only 11 per cent of citizens feel that policymakers have inspiring visions for the future of their wellbeing services county. This is the view of 18 per cent of decision-makers. At the municipal level, the results are slightly more positive. Citizens and decision-makers also agree that decisions at local and regional levels do not take sufficient account of long-term impacts.

It is also a grim sign for local and regional democracy that only 15 per cent of citizens feel that they have a say in the future of their municipality. Almost half of Finns also feel that they lack sufficient opportunities to participate in the discussion about the future of their municipality of residence.

‘According to the results of the Futures Barometer, local and regional decision-making in Finland is currently not seen by citizens as a political and democratic process that builds a better future. Instead, the results paint a picture of short-term governance with little influence from the residents of municipalities and regions,' says Jukka Vahti, Sitra’s leading foresight expert.

Statement	Citizens	Decision-makers
Decision-makers have inspiring visions for the future of my wellbeing services county.	11% agree, 64% disagree.	18% agree, 60% disagree.
Decision-makers have inspiring visions for the future of the municipality where I live.	21% agree, 47% disagree.	55% agree, 31% disagree.
Decision-making sufficiently takes into account long-term effects.	11% agree, 67% disagree.	23% agree, 66% disagree.

Work, security and safeguarding the welfare state will guide voting decisions in 2025 regional and municipal elections

Finns would like to see more jobs created in the next ten years and improvement in the well-being of children and young people. Preserving the welfare state and ensuring national security are also perceived as important.

The same issues also affect voting decisions in regional and municipal elections: the top three are jobs, the preservation of the welfare state and security.

Compared to the Futures Barometer conducted in the run-up to the municipal elections of 2021, voters now seem to be less certain about what influences their voting decisions. Only job creation has clearly increased in importance as a topic compared to the past.  

‘In this time of multiple simultaneous crises, we need shared, inspiring perspectives on the future and not just a reactive approach. Not only can we prepare for the worst, but it is also important to build a desirable future. This is what our results suggest both decision-makers and voters are seeking. And this is especially important for young people’s confidence in the future – and thus for all of our well-being,’ says Heinonen.

Futures Barometer 2025 is a survey commissioned by Sitra, which examined the views of 15–84-year-old Finns from mainland Finland and elected representatives from municipalities and wellbeing services counties on the future. The survey was completed by 3226 citizens and 733 decision-makers across Finland. The survey was carried out by Verian.  Previous Futures Barometers have been published in 2023, 2021 and 2019.