Sitra’s Megatrends 2026: These developments are forcing Finland to renew itself

Megatrends – broad arcs of change encompassing multiple phenomena – shape both the present moment and what lies ahead. According to the Megatrends 2026 report, Finland must respond to and prepare for four developments in particular:  

1. Towards a society of longevity. We need intergenerational justice, along with investment in active ageing and a stronger coexistence between generations, and a view of diversity as a resource.  

2. The transformation of the world order tests the strength of democracy. Democracy now requires commitment to defending and renewing it. Opportunities also exist in initiatives such as creating democratic innovations and building resilient information environments.  

3. The environmental crisis forces adaptation and renewal. We must strengthen – rather than weaken – the vitality of nature, and we must also adapt to what has already happened.  

4. Artificial intelligence is transforming the foundations of society. AI can improve productivity and create a competitive advantage, but it must be deployed responsibly and with a clear vision.  

“Megatrends help clarify the global landscape of change and create a roadmap for navigating renewal. What are the limits to shaping the future, what is changing, and what opportunities could we seize?” says Mikko Dufva, Senior Lead in Sitra’s foresight team and one of the authors of Megatrends 2026. 

This time, in interpreting megatrends from Finland’s perspective, the authors have placed particular emphasis on demographics: a shrinking and ageing population will strongly shape Finland’s future. The state of democracy has featured in several previous megatrend updates; in this edition, the focus is on our commitment to renewing and defending democracy. Although other crises have pushed the environmental crisis to the sidelines, it has not disappeared: it is accelerating rapidly and requires both adaptation and the renewal of society. In technology, attention centres on AI, which offers tremendous opportunities but also demands that we take a firmer grip of the steering wheel.

“The current global situation and the major developments affecting Finland’s future underline the need to shift from reactive measures to goal-oriented action – renewing society in a determined way so it can withstand future change. The positive news is that at this turning point, there is room to act,” says Sitra’s President Atte Jääskeläinen. 

Megatrends push Finland towards a new social contract  

Megatrends often draw attention to problems, but they also contain opportunities. The report concludes that Finland has favourable conditions for building a strong future if reforms are pursued decisively at all levels of society and within the constraints set by change. These constraints, or boundary conditions, include planetary boundaries, population structure, resource availability and Finland’s geography. 

“Finland needs a new social contract – an inspiring new promise about the future. It can be built on foundations such as a renewed democracy, the strengthening of nature’s vitality, the bold and sustainable use of technology, a reformed welfare state, and a forward-looking model for immigration,” Dufva says.

Ten years of Sitra’s megatrend reviews  

Sitra has published trend lists since 2011. In 2016, it released its first megatrend report that outlined a comprehensive situational overview. Marking this anniversary, the Megatrends 2026 report looks not only at the overall picture of change, opportunities and constraints, but also ten years back and ten years ahead – to 2036.  

“The megatrend review is one example of Sitra’s long-term foresight work to strengthen future-oriented thinking in Finland. In addition to information, we produce tools such as megatrend cards and workshop templates to make it as easy as possible to use futures knowledge in decision-making, everyday business and organisational development,” says Veera Heinonen, Director of Foresight and Training at Sitra.

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Notes from the authors

“Life expectancy is increasing and that is an extraordinary achievement! But if a small, ageing nation is to succeed, many things must change: we need intergenerational justice and investment in active ageing and the coexistence between generations. We must also see population diversity as a resource,” says Jenna Lähdemäki-Pekkinen, Specialist, Foresight and Training at Sitra.

“Democracy now requires commitment from all of us to both defend and renew it. Keys to renewal can be found in democratic innovations, making stronger use of existing democratic structures, and building resilient information environments,” says Elina Kiiski-Kataja, Senior Lead, Foresight and Training at Sitra.

“The coming years will be decisive: can we halt the deepening environmental crisis and create the conditions for a sustainable and thriving future, or will we continue overconsuming natural resources and limiting the conditions for well-being for future generations? Finland has the capabilities and opportunities for both preparedness and renewal,” says Jenna Lähdemäki-Pekkinen, Specialist, Foresight and Training at Sitra.

“Over the next ten years, we must find ways to use technology sustainably and in ways that increase people’s agency. Even though Finland has not been at the forefront of AI development, we can be a forerunner in its responsible application,” says Mikko Dufva, Senior Lead, Foresight and Training at Sitra.

“Controlled renewal is not easy. Often the path to improvement – or deterioration – runs through crises. Lessons on controlled reforms can be found in Sweden and Denmark, where a long-lasting foundation for well-being has been built over time. Ireland, for example, renewed itself through crisis, rising from the financial and economic downturn into new prosperity through clear policy choices backed by broad public debate,” says Veera Heinonen, Director of Foresight and Training at Sitra.

“Finland has strong starting points for building a robust future if we undertake the task with determination. Megatrends help us see not only problems but also opportunities for renewal. We can enhance intergenerational justice and treat long lifespans and population diversity as assets. We can work for democracy and trust, while contributing to the strengthening of the EU and NATO. We can invest in the circular economy and the use of nature-based health benefits and move towards a regenerative economy. We can find productivity and growth opportunities in innovative technologies and their combined applications,” says Elina Kiiski-Kataja, Senior Lead, Foresight and Training at Sitra.

“There are many individual opportunities. However, the megatrends and the current time of unrest point to the need for a broader reform. Finland needs a new social contract – an agreement on how power, responsibilities and rights are shared in society. This new social contract – a promise about what lies ahead – must support us both in a changed world and in the future. It must be credible and inspire action,” says Elina Kiiski-Kataja, Senior Lead, Foresight and Training at Sitra.