National Emergency Supply Agency to publish scenario on use of military force to support preparedness of businesses

Together with its key stakeholders, the National Emergency Supply Agency has prepared a fictional scenario on an extreme crisis challenging the resilience of society: Finland being pulled into a war. The scenario is not a prediction, but a fictional course of events. It describes the development of a possible situation from reaching a crisis point to escalation and protraction and how the situation would challenge society’s services, production and infrastructure.

“There is a great deal of public debate about military threats. However, there has been less discussion on how we could safeguard the vital functions of society in an extreme crisis. Businesses play an important role in the crisis resilience of society and also in the continuity of national defence. Businesses have long wished for this type of scenario and, through it, a common basis for preparedness,” says Director General Janne Känkänen from the National Emergency Supply Agency.

“By publishing the scenario, we want to make sure that as broad a group of businesses as possible have the opportunity to prepare and practise for extreme situations based on consistent guidelines. I would like to emphasise that it remains improbable that a military conflict will occur, and the Finnish Defence Forces believe that Finland is not currently facing a military threat.”

Finland’s security of supply is the result of cooperation between public authorities, businesses and organisations. It requires the identification and management of interdependencies and contingency planning. The understanding of the potential threat landscape must be sufficiently consistent to ensure that the preparedness of different sectors develops into an even better mutually reinforcing whole. A shared scenario is a useful tool for this purpose.

The scenario was already distributed as confidential material to the network of businesses critical to security of supply at the end of last year, and it is now being made available to the entire business community. The participants in preparing the scenario included experts from the Finnish Defence Forces, Traficom’s National Cyber Security Centre and the Finnish Supervisory Agency.

Emergency stockpiles would help buy time

From a security of supply perspective, we are talking about a severe crisis in which the markets would no longer be able to solve challenges on their own or quickly enough. The situation would therefore require actions by the government to safeguard the basic services of society.

There are a wide range of methods available, the best-known of which include the release of emergency stockpiles and control of the critical functions of society with the additional powers granted under the Emergency Powers Act, for example. The use of stockpiles would make it possible to buy time for businesses to make production changes and other arrangements. Should the situation drag on, society would move from temporary solutions to new permanent service and production structures.

Public administration would control production, consumption and labour mobility in a different way than under normal conditions. Resources would be adjusted to support defence and safeguard security of supply and civil society. Reliability would take priority over efficiency. Instead of the least expensive option, society would favour options that can be repaired and managed within the country.

We are all responsible for the functioning of society

National defence not only involves troops and equipment, but also requires electricity grids, hospitals, telecommunications and logistics. Society must not come to a halt, and the labour input of civilians would be needed to secure Finland, also during a military conflict. Every disruption to infrastructure is felt on the front line, and every success on the civilian side also reinforces military capability. Ensuring smooth everyday life would also require solutions tailored to the situation, and the responsibility for coming up with such solutions would increasingly shift to citizens, organisations, businesses and local operators. We can strengthen this capacity through joint preparedness under normal conditions.

In security of supply work, it is also important to take into account crises that are unlikely but that will be severe and protracted if they do occur. Preparedness is not about predicting threats, but about strengthening society’s ability to function. A well-prepared society can maintain its ability to function, recover from crises more quickly and provide citizens with peace of mind, also in times of uncertainty.

Scenario on the use of military force against Finland and security of supply (in Finnish)

Enquiries:

Director General Janne Känkänen
Head of Unit Jarna Hartikainen
interview requests: viestinta@nesa.fi