Suomen Pankki

Bank of Finland’s interim forecast: Finnish economy in hibernation

Share

The Finnish economy slipped into recession last autumn as a result of the energy crisis brought on by Russia’s war in Ukraine. The economy’s performance will continue to be very weak in 2023, according to the Bank of Finland’s interim forecast published today. It takes time for the full effects of uncommonly high inflation and the substantial rise in interest rates to be felt in the economy. The recession is expected to be short-lived and shallow, however. Turbulence in international financial markets is adding to economic uncertainty and could lead to weaker than expected growth in the Finnish economy.

“Finland’s economy has held up so far, despite the difficulties, but the full effects of high inflation and elevated interest rates have not been seen yet. Risks in the global economy have also grown again in just the past few days,” says Bank of Finland Head of Forecasting Meri Obstbaum.

The Finnish economy grew by 2.1% in 2022, thanks to a strong start to the year, but the war and the energy crisis then reversed the trend. The economy will contract by 0.2% in 2023, according to the interim forecast. Growth will then be at a fairly weak level in the immediate years ahead, as the forecast assumes interest rates will remain elevated and no quick recovery is expected in the demand for Finnish exports. According to the forecast, the Finnish economy will grow by 0.9% in 2024 and by 1.5% in 2025.

Inflation expected to return to below 2% in 2024

Consumer prices rose at an exceptionally high rate in 2022. Energy prices fell sharply towards the end of the year, and in 2023 the upward pressure on consumer prices will ease. Inflation is projected to be 4.6% this year. The rise in the prices of services and consumer goods will also gradually slow and inflation will return to below 2% in 2024.

The employment rate improved significantly in 2022, but the faltering economy will bring an end to the favourable trend in the labour market. The standstill in economic growth will nevertheless be of such short duration that employment will remain strong in the immediate years ahead.

The biggest risks surrounding the forecast are concerned with financing conditions, the energy markets and the persistence of high inflation. If these risks materialise, the economy could perform below the levels projected in the forecast.

Bank of Finland’s interim forecast, march 2023 (in Finnish)


Further information:

Meri Obstbaum, Head of Forecasting

firstname.lastname@bof.fi

+358 9 1832363

Keywords

Images

Links

About Suomen Pankki

Suomen Pankki
Suomen Pankki
Snellmaninaukio, PL 160
00101 HELSINKI

09 1831http://www.bof.fi

The Bank of Finland is the national monetary authority and central bank of Finland. At the same time, it is also a part of the Eurosystem, which is responsible for monetary policy and other central bank tasks in the euro area and administers use of the world’s second largest currency – the euro.

Subscribe to releases from Suomen Pankki

Subscribe to all the latest releases from Suomen Pankki by registering your e-mail address below. You can unsubscribe at any time.

Latest releases from Suomen Pankki

Referensränta och dröjsmålsräntor enligt räntelagen för tiden 1.7–31.12.202525.6.2025 14:00:00 EEST | Pressmeddelande

Referensräntan enligt 12 § i räntelagen (633/1982) är 2,5 % för tiden 1.7–31.12.2025. Dröjsmålsräntan för denna period är 9,5 % per år (referensräntan med tillägg för sju procentenheter enligt 4 § i räntelagen). Den dröjsmålsränta som tillämpas i kommersiella avtal är 10,5 % per år (referensräntan med tillägg för åtta procentenheter enligt 4 a § i räntelagen).

Korkolain mukainen viitekorko ja viivästyskorot 1.7.–31.12.202525.6.2025 14:00:00 EEST | Tiedote

Korkolain (633/1982) 12 §:n mukainen viitekorko ajanjaksona 1.7.–31.12.2025 on 2,5 %. Viivästyskorko tänä ajanjaksona on 9,5 % vuodessa (viitekorko lisättynä korkolain 4 §:n mukaisella 7 prosenttiyksikön lisäkorolla). Kaupallisiin sopimuksiin sovellettavaksi tarkoitettu viivästyskorko on 10,5 % vuodessa (viitekorko lisättynä korkolain 4 a §:n mukaisella 8 prosenttiyksikön lisäkorolla).

Reference rate and penalty interest rates for 1 July – 31 December 202525.6.2025 14:00:00 EEST | Press release

The reference rate under section 12 of the Interest Act (633/1982) for the period 1 July – 31 December 2025 is 2.5 %. The penalty interest rate for the same period is 9.5 % pa (under section 4 of the Act, the reference rate plus seven percentage points). The penalty interest rate applicable to commercial contracts is 10.5 % pa (under section 4 a of the Act, the reference rate plus eight percentage points).

Invitation to the media: 10th RiskLab Finland, Bank of Finland and European Systemic Risk Board Joint Conference on AI and Systemic Risk Analytics, 27 June17.6.2025 14:56:31 EEST | Press invitation

Dear journalist, You are invited to participate in the 10th RiskLab Finland, Bank of Finland and European Systemic Risk Board Joint Conference on AI and Systemic Risk Analytics on Friday 27 June 2025 online or at the Bank of Finland auditorium (Rauhankatu 19, Helsinki). The conference will be held in a hybrid format, allowing virtual participation. The afternoon session starting at 14.00 will entail speeches from Governor Olli Rehn and Nobel Laureate in Economics Simon Johnson followed by an interview of Professor Johnson by Governor Rehn. In the registration form below, we ask you to indicate whether you will participate in the full programme or the afternoon session. Kindly find the programme below. Please note that all times listed in the conference schedule are in Finnish local time (UTC+3 EEST). Please register by 25 June 2025 at 15.00 by using link below: Register here ------ Full programme Time: Friday, 27 June 2025 Place: Bank of Finland Auditorium, address: Rauhankatu 19, Hels

I januari–mars 2025 betalades med kort i första hand till affärer som säljer livsmedel och alkoholfria drycker12.6.2025 10:00:00 EEST | Pressmeddelande

De finländska betaltjänstleverantörernas kunder betalade med betalkort för sammanlagt 17,1 miljarder euro under första kvartalet 2025, vilket var 854 miljoner euro (5,2 %) mer än vid motsvarande tidpunkt året innan. Nästan en tredjedel av summan betalades till försäljare, vars näringsgren är livsmedel och alkoholfria drycker. Kunderna köpte livsmedel och alkoholfria drycker till ett värde av 5,1 miljarder euro under första kvartalet 2025, vilket var 2 % mer än vid motsvarande tidpunkt för ett år sedan.

In our pressroom you can read all our latest releases, find our press contacts, images, documents and other relevant information about us.

Visit our pressroom
World GlobeA line styled icon from Orion Icon Library.HiddenA line styled icon from Orion Icon Library.Eye