Suomen Pankki

Russia's war in Ukraine is stifling Finland’s economic recovery


Russia’s war in Ukraine is weakening the outlook for the Finnish economy. Finland’s economic growth was in full swing before the war started, and this serves as a good foundation for the full year’s growth. According to the Bank of Finland's June forecast, the Finnish economy will grow by 1.7% in 2022, but growth will slow to 0.5% in 2023. In 2024 growth will pick up to 1.5%.

Inflation has risen significantly. The war is spurring further growth in energy prices, and the availability of goods has worsened. Services will become more expensive as goods price inflation is passed on to service prices. Consumer prices are projected to rise by 5.6% in 2022. “Supply chain bottlenecks and high raw material prices are pushing up inflation. Inflation is projected to slow next year as the impact of energy prices subsides and supply chain disruptions are expected to ease,” says Bank of Finland Head of Forecasting Meri Obstbaum.

Foreign trade with Russia is collapsing as a result of the war, and higher uncertainty and inflation are weakening the prospects for consumption and investment. “Cost-competitiveness will play an important role in how companies are able to adjust as they try to find new markets to make up for lost business in Russia. If they do not succeed in this, the risk of a recession will grow,”’ says Obstbaum.

Uncertainty surrounding the world economy is present in the forecast for the Finnish economy. In addition to geopolitical risks, uncertainty is being stoked by the continuation of the pandemic and the risk that growth in China may slow more rapidly than expected. “The investment boom that appeared to be on the horizon has been dashed by uncertainty. Factors deterring investment also include the shortages of materials and components faced by companies as well as rising prices and interest rates,” says Obstbaum.

The uncertain economic outlook and rising prices are curtailing household consumption. “Finnish household sentiment about their personal finances and the national economy both slumped to record lows this spring. As a result of the high inflation, households will still see their purchasing power decline this year,” says Obstbaum. On the other hand, households have accumulated a considerable amount of savings during the pandemic which they might choose to spend to make up for the loss in purchasing power.

Finland’s public finances were weakened by the pandemic, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created new public spending needs. The general government deficit relative to GDP will shrink somewhat in the coming years, but the public finances will remain in deficit and the debt ratio will begin to edge upwards again.

The risks surrounding the forecast are clearly on the downside. The forecast assumes that uncertainty generated by the war will fade over time. Production and supply chain bottlenecks are expected to gradually ease. The trajectory of Russia’s war in Ukraine is, of course, impossible to predict accurately. Growth in the Finnish economy may fall short of the forecast, especially if disruptions in the availability of commodities and goods persist and price pressures fail to subside. In the worst case scenario, the entire euro area may fall into recession.




About Suomen Pankki

Suomen Pankki
Suomen Pankki
Snellmaninaukio, PL 160

09 1831

The Bank of Finland is the national monetary authority and central bank of Finland. At the same time, it is also a part of the Eurosystem, which is responsible for monetary policy and other central bank tasks in the euro area and administers use of the world’s second largest currency – the euro.

Subscribe to releases from Suomen Pankki

Subscribe to all the latest releases from Suomen Pankki by registering your e-mail address below. You can unsubscribe at any time.

Latest releases from Suomen Pankki

Markku Lehmus to head the Bank of Finland’s Monetary Policy and Euro Area Economy Division1.7.2022 13:00:00 EEST | Uutinen

Markku Lehmus, D.Soc.Sc., has been appointed as Head of Division of the Monetary Policy and Euro Area Economy Division at the Bank of Finland’s Monetary Policy and Research Department, with effect from 1 September. The post is permanent, and the appointment is made for a term of five years. Lehmus will be responsible for the day to day management of the Division and for its longer term development, especially in regard to preparatory work on the euro area macroeconomic outlook and monetary policy. He will also be responsible for euro area monetary policy modelling and for developing tools used in economic and inflation analysis in connection with monetary policy and the euro area. In addition, he will be a member of the Monetary Policy and Research Department’s management team. Lehmus has served since 2018 as Head of Forecasting at ETLA Economic Research (formerly Research Institute of the Finnish Economy). His previous posts have included Senior Researcher at the VATT Institute for Ec

Markku Lehmus Suomen Pankin rahapolitiikan ja euroalueen talouden toimiston päälliköksi1.7.2022 13:00:00 EEST | Uutinen

Valtiotieteiden tohtori Markku Lehmus on nimitetty 1.9.2022 alkaen toimistopäälliköksi rahapolitiikka- ja tutkimusosaston rahapolitiikan ja euroalueen talouden toimistoon. Virka on vakinainen, ja toimistopäällikön nimitys on tehty viiden vuoden määräajaksi. Markku Lehmuksen vastuulla on toimiston päivittäinen johtaminen ja sen työn pitkäjänteinen kehittäminen erityisesti euroalueen kokonaistaloudellisen analyysin ja rahapolitiikkaan liittyvän analyysin valmistelussa. Hän vastaa euroalueen rahapolitiikan mallintamisesta ja rahapolitiikan ja euroalueen talous- ja inflaatioanalyysiin käytettävän välineistön kehittämisestä. Hän on myös rahapolitiikka- ja tutkimusosaston johtoryhmän jäsen. Markku Lehmus on toiminut vuodesta 2018 Elinkeinoelämän tutkimuslaitoksen ennustepäällikkönä ja sitä ennen mm. Valtion taloudellisen tutkimuskeskuksen erikoistutkijana ja Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitoksen (nyk. Labore) vanhempana tutkijana. Markku Lehmus on makrotalouden asiantuntija ja tutkija, ja hänellä

Essi Eerola to head the Bank of Finland’s Domestic Economic Policy Process1.7.2022 13:00:00 EEST | Uutinen

Essi Eerola, D.Soc.Sc., has been appointed to head the Bank of Finland’s Domestic Economic Policy Process, with effect from 15 August 2022. The appointment is for a five-year term. She will be responsible for the operation and development of the process. Eerola, as head of the process, will report directly to the Governor of the Bank of Finland and will also serve as a member of the Monetary Policy and Research Department’s management team. Eerola has served since 2016 as Research Director at the VATT Institute for Economic Research. Her previous posts have included Adviser in the Research Unit of the Monetary Policy and Research Department of the Bank of Finland, and Principal Economist at the VATT Institute for Economic Research. Eerola is an experienced economist and researcher in the field of Finnish economic policy and has specialised in public finances and the housing market. She successfully defended her doctoral thesis in 2003 in the Department of Economics at the University of

Essi Eerola Suomen Pankin kotimaisen talouspolitiikan vaikuttamisen prosessin päälliköksi1.7.2022 13:00:00 EEST | Uutinen

Valtiotieteiden tohtori Essi Eerola on nimitetty 15.8.2022 alkaen Suomen Pankin kotimaisen talouspolitiikan vaikuttamisen prosessin päälliköksi. Nimitys on tehty viiden vuoden määräajaksi. Essi Eerolan vastuulla on prosessin toiminta ja kehittäminen. Hän raportoi tehtävässään johtokunnan puheenjohtajalle ja on rahapolitiikka- ja tutkimusosaston johtoryhmän jäsen. Essi Eerola on toiminut vuodesta 2016 Valtion taloudellisen tutkimuskeskuksen tutkimusjohtajana ja sitä ennen mm. Suomen Pankissa neuvonantajana rahapolitiikka- ja tutkimusosaston tutkimusyksikössä sekä Valtion taloudellisen tutkimuskeskuksen johtavana ekonomistina. Essi Eerola on kokenut suomalaisen talouspolitiikan asiantuntija ja tutkija, ja hän on erikoistunut julkisen talouden ja asuntomarkkinoiden kysymyksiin. Essi Eerola väitteli vuonna 2003 valtiotieteiden tohtoriksi Helsingin yliopiston taloustieteen laitokselta. Vuosina 2003–2008 hän toimi Helsingin yliopistossa ensin post doc -tutkijana ja myöhemmin lehtorina ja mää

Considerably higher new drawdowns of unsecured consumer credit in May than before1.7.2022 10:00:00 EEST | Press release

The amount of unsecured consumer credit drawn from credit institutions in May 2022 was EUR 368 million, which is 15% more than a year earlier and the highest number ever recorded in any single month. The majority (EUR 237 million) of the new unsecured consumer credit consisted of non-vehicle loans[1]. The year-on-year growth in May was mainly due to these loans. The average interest on new unsecured consumer credit[2] declined from April to stand at 8.2% in May. A little more than half of new consumer credit was linked to Euribor rates. The most frequently used Euribor was the 3-month rate. Fixed interest rates and other reference rates are more common as reference rates on unsecured consumer credit in comparison to other household loans. The use of card credit has also increased in recent months. At the end of May 2022, the households’ stock of card credit amounted to EUR 3.4 billion, having grown almost 10% from a year earlier. In May, 81% of card credit was extended credit card cred

In our pressroom you can read all our latest releases, find our press contacts, images, documents and other relevant information about us.

Visit our pressroom