Finnish Forests Outperform Swedish Forests During the First Half of 2026

Finnish forest investments performed better during the first half of 2026 compared to their counterparts in Sweden. Finland’s H1 return reached 5.9%, supported by a Q2 gain of 7.1%. In Sweden, H1 returns fell to -6.6% as Q2 declined by -7.3%. On a twelve-month basis, returns remained negative in both markets, with Finland at -11.7% and Sweden at -15.0%.

However, despite recent negative returns, Sweden continues to outperform Finland over the medium term. Strong quarterly returns in Sweden following Q1/2024 have resulted in substantial value accumulation for forest owners. By Q2/2026, the index level was at 127.4, corresponding to a cumulative return of 27.4%. In Finland, the corresponding index reached 109.4, representing a cumulative return of 9.4%. Both index levels declined sharply from the peak levels reached in Q2/2025, as shown in the figure.

Changes in stumpage revenues, calculated as the sum of changes in timber prices and harvest volumes, continue to be the main factor explaining return fluctuations in both countries. In Finland, pulpwood prices diverged from sawlog prices recently, as pulpwood has seen a relatively larger decrease in price. Furthermore, the prices have decreased since June, while biological growth continued to provide a stable positive contribution to returns.

Indufor’s Forest Investment Return Index now covers both Finland and Sweden, representing almost 30% of EU wood market and nearly one million forest owners. The index measures private forest returns using public market data on timber prices, standing stock volumes, harvests and forest management costs. The methodology is based on the Montgomery-Vartia index, allowing the total return to be consistently decomposed into its underlying components.

Founded in 1980, Indufor Oy is an internationally recognized forest sector consultancy headquartered in Helsinki, Finland, with experience in more than 100 countries.